Uranium Price Sensitivity
The following table is not a forecast of prices we expect to receive. The prices we actually realize will be different from the prices shown in the table.
It is designed to indicate how the portfolio of fully-executed, long-term contracts we had in place on December 31, 2024 would respond to various spot prices at December 31, 2024. In other words, we would realize these prices only if the contract portfolio remained the same as it was on December 31, 2024 and none of the assumptions we list below change.
We intend to update this table each quarter in our MD&A to reflect deliveries made and changes to our contract portfolio. As a result, we expect the table to change from quarter to quarter.
Expected realized uranium price sensitivity under various spot price assumptions at December 31, 2024
(rounded to the nearest $1.00)
| Spot prices ($US/lb U3O8) | $20 | $40 | $60 | $80 | $100 | $120 | $140 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 43 | 47 | 55 | 61 | 64 | 65 | 65 |
| 2026 | 42 | 45 | 56 | 66 | 69 | 70 | 72 |
| 2027 | 42 | 45 | 57 | 69 | 73 | 75 | 77 |
| 2028 | 48 | 50 | 59 | 71 | 76 | 78 | 80 |
| 2029 | 50 | 52 | 61 | 73 | 81 | 84 | 86 |
As of December 31, 2024, we had commitments requiring delivery of an average of about 28 million pounds per year from 2025 through 2029, with commitment levels in 2025 through 2027 higher than the average and, in 2028 and 2029, lower than the average, reflecting our disciplined approach to contracting. As the market continues to improve, we expect to continue to layer in volumes that capture greater upside using market-related pricing mechanisms.
Assumptions
Our portfolio is affected by more than just the spot price. We made the following assumptions (which are not forecasts) to create the table:
Prices
- The uranium price remains fixed at a given spot level for each annual period shown
Deliveries
- Deliveries based on commitments under finalized contracts include best estimates of the expected deliveries and flexibility under contract terms
Annual inflation
- To reflect escalation mechanisms contained in existing contracts, the long-term US inflation rate of 2% is used, for modeling purposes only
Caution about Forward-Looking Information
Please click here for additional information about the assumptions applied in making the forward-looking statements on this page and the factors that could cause results to differ materially.