Uranium Price Sensitivity
The following table is not a forecast of prices we expect to receive. The prices we actually realize will be different from the prices shown in the table.
It is designed to indicate how the portfolio of fully-executed, long-term contracts we had in place on September 30, 2024 would respond to various spot prices at September 30, 2024. In other words, we would realize these prices only if the contract portfolio remained the same as it was on September 30, 2024 and none of the assumptions we list below change.
We intend to update this table each quarter in our MD&A to reflect deliveries made and changes to our contract portfolio. As a result, we expect the table to change from quarter to quarter.
Expected realized uranium price sensitivity under various spot price assumptions at September 30, 2024
(rounded to the nearest $1.00)
| Spot prices ($US/lb U3O8) | $20 | $40 | $60 | $80 | $100 | $120 | $140 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 |
| 2025 | 40 | 45 | 55 | 61 | 64 | 64 | 65 |
| 2026 | 42 | 44 | 56 | 66 | 68 | 69 | 70 |
| 2027 | 43 | 46 | 57 | 69 | 73 | 74 | 76 |
| 2028 | 47 | 49 | 59 | 70 | 75 | 77 | 78 |
As of September 30, 2024, we had commitments requiring delivery of an average of about 29 million pounds per year from 2024 through 2028, with commitment levels in 2024 and 2025 higher than the average and, in 2026 through 2028, lower than the average. As the market continues to improve, we expect to continue to layer in volumes that capture greater upside using market-related pricing mechanisms.
Assumptions
Our portfolio is affected by more than just the spot price. We made the following assumptions (which are not forecasts) to create the table:
Prices
- The uranium price remains fixed at a given spot level for each annual period shown
Deliveries
- Deliveries based on commitments under finalized contracts include best estimates of the expected deliveries and flexibility under contract terms
Annual inflation
- To reflect escalation mechanisms contained in existing contracts, the long-term US inflation rate of 2% is used, for modeling purposes only
Caution about Forward-Looking Information
Please click here for additional information about the assumptions applied in making the forward-looking statements on this page and the factors that could cause results to differ materially.